Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

16 noviembre 2007

This weekend will be decisive with blockbusters films. After the poor results of Warner’s Christmas tale Fred Claus and the non-impressive gross of Bee Movie, the new two major films released this weekend have the responsibility to re-launch the box offices grosses.

Robert Zemeckis’ last digital adventure Beowulf will be released in about 3,100 sites looking to capture the same audience which gave 300 the number one position at box office. The absence of other action movies offers Zemeckis’ film a big opportunity to gross $35M.

Paramount is confident about the action and adventure movie plot and the good reviews of the film, and aims to pry teen audiences away from their videogames but this may be not enough to obtain a great begining. The question is whether adult aud will feel more attracted to this epic digital tale than to a traditional action movie like American Gangster.

Previous similar digital films like Polar Express and Final Fantasy didn’t obtain good results at the box office. But 300 was a great success with a similar style in plot and action. Beowoulf has a budget of $150M and its marketing campaign has been terrific and that could attract young male people. Moreover, Paramount is confident that the film will be a relevant choice during the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend.

In the magic world of the flops we could find on Monday the new Fox fantasy Mr. Magorium’s wonder emporium. The studio bows its new magic tale in more than 3.100 hoping to be luckier than Warner’s Fred Claus. Magorium is a fairy tale co-starred by Dustin Hoffman and Natalie Portman and tells the wonderful story of a 230 years-old man who owns a toy shop and needs a new employee.

It seems to me that Mr. Magorium’s magic plot and the colorful trailer will not persuade fathers and mothers, but if kids respond to the TV commercial, they will find a way to persuade their parents to take them in the cinemas. My prediction is not very high: $18M. I don’t know why, but family audience has disappeared in the cinemas, maybe fathers are more interested in TV-shows and their children prefer to play with their X-Box or PS3 rather than being in the cinema.

Love in the time of cholera is weekend’s main limited release. New Line bows the film in 850 sites with the intention of attract female audience, who has disappeared from multiplexes during the last two months. Despite the New Line’s strong marketing campaign, film’s bad reviews will stop women, and the movie will gross no more than $3M in its first frame.

Love in the time of cholera is starred by Javier Bardem who also plays a main role in another limited release, No country for old men. Coen’s film expands 100 sites during this weekend hoping to cross $3M on its second frame. No country has been released last week in 28 venues grossing more than $43,000 per site. On its second frame Miramax wants to keep and expand adult audience attracted by the excellent film reviews.

American Gangster will be a high container to adult aud as well, decreasing 40% in its third frame. Ridley Scott last film will surpass $100M during this weekend. Dreamworks’ animated movie Bee Movie will drop a 40% close to $100M mark but the film will lose audience in front of Mr. Magorium and Fred Claus films.

Last weeks releases Lions for lambs and Fred Claus don’t interest to anybody. Both films will drop 43% their results and will gross less than their production company needs to have a benefit. Sorry Tom, it’s not your fault.

Pau Brunet