Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

08 diciembre 2007

This weekend a golden release has the obligation to set the box office on high numbers. The numeber of the last quarter are low and non-impressive to major companies, and for that the present releases have to be fabulous. New Line’s The Golden Compass bows in 5,528 sites with the intention to surpass $50M, but nobody believes it. In my personal opinion Golden has strong energy and a potent promotion campaign to cross this number, but previous family releases grosses haven’t been high and strong (only Enchanted, and far from past years successes as Happy Feet).

The Golden Compass is an adaptation of Phillip Pullman best seller His dark material: The Golden Compass, one of the most famous fantasy novels of the last years. With more enthusiastic fans that Harry Potter, Golden could be a success if it persuaded the novel fans. The early first images of the film were quite well received in forums and fans web pages and that gives a cue of the people waiting to buy a ticket. But the first commentaries about the film aren’t good, especially from critics, and that could badly effect among adult audiences. Moreover, the first fans who have seen the film are not speaking very well about the adaptation (especially the end of the film) and that will affect the results as well.

For this reason, The Golden Compass will start very well on Friday, maybe between $13M and $15M, but the film will drop 25% during Saturday and Sunday ending with $35M. On the other hand, the Christmas season starts in two weeks and that could help the final result of Golden, or that hopes New Line. The Golden Compass has a super budget of $185M and among $50M spent in advertising which means that the film has to gross (worldwide) more than $500M if someone wants to see the second and third part of this trilogy.

The only release will not affect too much other box office movies. Enchanted and No country for old men could be the real winners of this weekend, because both films count on the audiences attention (family aud the first and adult aud the second). Both of them will drop a 35-35%.

Last weekend release, Awake, is going to disappear from the box office in few weeks. During the weekend, the film will down a 55%, ending with a non-impressive gross of $11M. Another disappointing movie for MGM which is not scoring a success film since Casino Royale.

In limited releases the studios bow two important films which want to catch awards: Atonement and Juno. Both of them have obtained very good reviews, and Atonement has been a success in United Kingdom where the film has grossed more than $30M.

Juno is a comedy film quite similar to Little Miss Sunshine and Fox (the same company which released Sunshine) will try to attract the same type of audience with the intention to obtain good grosses during this weeks and Christmas and to expand locations with the awards that the movie could win.

Studios are very nervous about the results of the films during this weekend, because the results of the last three months haven’t been quite good. The arrival of super-budget films as Golden Compass, I am Legend and Sweeney Todd force to obtain high numbers. Before Christmas, the studios hope to cross the $100M per weekend. If that doen’t happen, this year will be one of the worst in many years.

Pau Brunet