El coste del FROB

Rubén Manso Olivar, Mansolivar & IAX. Profesor de la Univ. de Alcalá. Inspector de Entidades de Crédito y Ahorro del Banco de España

En las próximas semanas, los movimientos en el sector de las cajas de ahorros se acelerarán después de los sucesos del fin de semana último. Recuerden que el 30 de junio tienen que estar solicitadas todas las ayudas del Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria (el Frob), porque lo que no esté solicitado a esa fecha habrá que solicitarlo en Bruselas que, visto cómo está España, no estará por autorizar más ayudas públicas.

La regulación del Frob lo dotó con 9.000 millones de euros ampliables en 90.000 millones más, es decir, lo dotó con billón y medio de pesetas ampliables en otros 15 billones. No intenten imaginarse las cifras. Han perdido el sentido dada la facilidad de las autoridades occidentales para inventar nuevas cantidades.

En las próximas semanas, las cajas irán pasando por el Frob para pedir sus ayudas y éste muy probablemente tendrá que ir haciendo nuevas emisiones de deuda para poder darles las ayudas. Los partidarios de las mismas les dirán que éstas se cobran a suculentos tipos de interés cercanos al 8%. Es cierto, pero también es cierto que toda la deuda pública española, no sólo la que emita el Frob para conceder las ayudas, resultará más cara.

El Frob contabilizará un beneficio por la diferencia entre el tipo al que se financia y el tipo al que cobra los apoyos a las entidades, pero no recogerá en sus cuentas el incremento del coste del endeudamiento público. Ese coste aparecerá en los presupuestos públicos y podría llegar a ser hasta superior al beneficio del Frob. Eso sin contar las posibles insolvencias que pudiera cosechar este organismo.

En cualquier caso, los mercados acusarán en las próximas semanas esas ayudas con subidas de la prima de riesgo que se aplican a los bonos públicos españoles y volveremos a sentir inestabilidades en los mercados. A largo plazo, y si el Frob no quiere cosechar insolvencias, la liquidez deberá inundar el mercado para que se deprecie el valor real de la deuda. Y de los salarios, y de las pensiones… A veces parece que la Argentina de Perón está a tres paradas de metro.

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