Más de la mitad del tráfico total de datos en el móvil se generará desde los hogares durante los cinco próximos años, y el de voz no le andará a la zaga.
Según la consultora Informa Telecoms & Media, el crecimiento del uso de los servicios móviles dentro de los hogares impulsará el crecimiento de las denominadas femtoceldas.
Se estima que el tráfico de datos móviles generado en los hogares durante el año 2007 fue el 40% del total, pero está previsto que para 2013 alcance el 58%. Informa espera que el despliegue de femtoceldas ayude a las operadoras a desviar hacia las redes fijas hasta un 8% del tráfico total de móvil, a través de las líneas de banda ancha de los usuarios finales.
El aumento del consumo de datos se deberá a que los usuarios iniciarán unas sesiones de datos más largas y completas en el entorno más relajado de sus hogares, navegando por la web, viendo clips de vídeo más largos y ricos, descargando música y vídeos, intercambiando fotografías o utilizando aplicaciones de telefonía IP y de chat.
A fin de atender este crecimiento explosivo, las operadoras han llevado a cabo fuertes inversiones en la cobertura 3,5G+ de las zonas urbanas más densas. Pero en dichas áreas también se consumen muchos datos, pues en ellas residen la mayoría de los usuarios de teléfonos avanzados y ordenadores portátiles conectados, lo que a la larga desembocaría en una saturación de las redes y una disminución del ancho de banda por usuario. Tampoco ayuda la poca capacidad de las emisiones 3G para atravesar los muros de hormigón.
En consecuencia, Malik Saadi, analista principal de Informa, considera que si se implementa correctamente, las soluciones de acceso móvil en el hogar (MAH, mobile access at home) entre las que se cuentan las femtoceldas y las tecnologías de modo dual UMA y VCC, constituyen posibles soluciones.
Al facilitar que las operadoras desvíen una parte sustancial del tráfico móvil hacia la línea fija del abonado, las instalaciones de MAH podrían aportarles un ahorro considerable, ya que relajarían las necesidades de ampliación de capacidad de las redes y mejorarían la cobertura y la capacidad del acceso móvil de banda ancha dentro de los hogares.
“Al igual que el tráfico de voz se ha desplazado de las antiguas líneas telefónicas conmutadas hacia los móviles, es posible creer que un porcentaje significativo de la generación del tráfico de Internet se trasladará desde los ordenadores personales fijos hacia los dispositivos móviles, como son los teléfonos móviles, los terminales móviles de Internet y los ordenadores portátiles conectados”, afirma Saadi. “Ello no significa que los servicios móviles de banda ancha vayan a sustituir por completo a la banda ancha fija, sino que los usuarios preferirán conservar algunas aplicaciones en sus dispositivos móviles o portátiles porque ello les ofrece más intimidad”, añade.
El analista también considera que, impulsados por las bajadas de precios, los minutos de uso de voz móvil dentro de los hogares también aumentarán, acercándose al 49% del tráfico total de voz hacia finales de 2013, comparado con el 42% del año en curso.
Las llamadas realizadas desde la oficina serán el siguiente grupo en importancia, con un 30% del total, mientras que sólo el 9% de las llamadas se efectuarán en movimiento. El 21% restante de las llamadas se generarán en otros lugares públicos.
[vía]
September 26, 2008 – Waterloo, ON – Research In Motion Limited (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; TSX: RIM), a world leader in the mobile communications market, today reported second quarter results for the three months ended August 30, 2008 (all figures in U.S. dollars and U.S. GAAP).
Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2009 was $2.58 billion, up 15% from $2.24 billion in the previous quarter and up 88% from $1.37 billion in the same quarter of last year. The revenue breakdown for the quarter was approximately 82% for devices, 13% for service, 3% for software and 2% for other revenue. During the quarter, RIM shipped approximately 6.1 million devices.
Approximately 2.6 million net new BlackBerry® subscriber accounts were added in the quarter. At the end of the quarter, the total BlackBerry subscriber account base was approximately 19 million.
“Fiscal 2009 is proving to be an extraordinary year for RIM and its partners,” said Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO at Research In Motion. “We shipped over 11 million BlackBerry smartphones in the first half and we’re gearing up for an even stronger second half. Our enterprise business remains strong and our momentum in the consumer marketplace continues as we head into the holiday buying season with an amazing product portfolio and solid marketing support from partners.”
Net income for the quarter was $495.5 million, or $0.86 per share diluted, compared with net income of $482.5 million, or $0.84 per share diluted, in the prior quarter and net income of $287.7 million, or $0.50 per share diluted, in the same quarter last year.
Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 ending November 29, 2008 is expected to be in the range of $2.95-$3.10 billion. Net subscriber account additions in the third quarter are expected to be approximately 2.9 million. Earnings per share for the third quarter are expected to be in the range of $0.89-$0.97 per share diluted based on a gross margin of approximately 47% and operating expenses that are 1-2% lower as a percentage of revenue than in the second quarter.
The total of cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments was $2.24 billion as at August 30, 2008, compared to $2.08 billion at the end of the previous quarter, an increase of $163 million over the prior quarter. Uses of cash in the quarter included capital expenditures of approximately $190 million and intangible asset purchases of approximately $234 million.
http://www.rim.com/investors
At the end of 2008, there will be four billion global mobile subscriptions, according to the latest forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media.
Assuming that the world’s four billionth mobile subscription comes during the fourth quarter of 2008, it will have taken just five full quarters for the latest billion net additions.
The engine for this rapid growth has been the tremendous consumer demand seen in emerging markets, such as China and India, where in each of these countries there have been over 50 million new mobile subscriptions in the last six months alone, as well as significant growth in markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and Brazil.
The rise of global mobile subscription numbers is, however, set to slow, with Informa Telecoms & Media’s forecasts suggesting the five billionth subscription will be signed during 4Q 2011, with worldwide penetration reaching in excess of 70% by this time. Only in Africa will penetration at the end of 2011 still be below 50%.
“It is clear that the mobile industry will see a slowdown in growth – it is simply untenable for the extraordinary growth witnessed over the last 18 months to continue,” says Informa Principal Analyst, Nick Jotischky. “Even taking the fastest growing regions of Asia Pacific and Africa into account, where we will see well over 20% year-on-year growth in subscription numbers this year, our forecasts suggest that this growth rate will slow to below 10% in 2010.”
Facing the reality of this slowdown in growth, the world’s largest mobile operators are broadening, and in some cases reconsidering their strategic thinking. Informa Telecoms & Media’s “Mobile Operator Strategies” report studies the parallel business lines being assumed by the likes of Vodafone, China Mobile and Telenor. On the one hand, the extension of basic mobile connectivity to new lower-income groups remains central to their strategic direction, but increasingly so too is the accelerating collision of broadband Internet and mobility.
“Mobile broadband services, and in particular the evolution of HSPA, have reinvented the business case for 3G technologies and as a result mobile Internet services are helping to provide operators with new business streams, particularly within higher-income groups,” Jotischky explains.
“And allied to this,” Jotischky continues “emerging markets are no longer quite as attractive as they once were as the race to extend rural network coverage has given the ultimate challenge to operators – how best to reach out to low income groups and still make a profit. It is no longer just about the quantity of subscriptions, but also the value that can be attributed to these subscriptions.”
http://www.informatm.com/mos

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